Jun 15, 2026
Russian seaborne oil exports reached a new seasonal low in May, according to a report from Vortexa. The total stood at 5.74 million barrels per day, a decline of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the same month last year.
Crude Exports Hold Above Seasonal Norms
Despite repeated incidents of infrastructure damage at Russian export terminals, including at Primorsk and Ust-Luga in March 2026, total seaborne crude exports have remained above the three-year seasonal average since March of this year. The Arctic and Far East regions have been key drivers of this resilience, partly because their export sites are located farther from the reach of strikes. Exports from Russia’s Baltic region have shown a slightly slower increase compared to the three-year seasonal level, though they remain higher year-on-year. In contrast, Black Sea exports continued to lag behind the levels seen a year earlier.
This regional divergence reflects longer-term capacity trends. In the Far East, exports of ESPO Blend crude from Russia’s Kozmino terminal have not yet reached the terminal’s capacity of 50 million tonnes per year, or roughly 1 million to 1.1 million barrels per day. In 2025, 47.2 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1 million barrels per day, were lifted from that site, according to Argus. In the Arctic, the first phase of the Vostok Oil project is expected to begin operations by the end of 2026, potentially adding up to 600,000 barrels per day of crude export capacity once fully developed, as reported by Argus. Although the project has faced multiple delays and limited transparency on timelines, its start-up could help insulate some seaborne crude exports from infrastructure disruption caused by strikes.
In the near term, the current strength of exports from the Far East and Arctic, combined with ongoing refinery outages, suggests that Russian seaborne crude exports are likely to remain sustained over the coming month.
Refinery Outages Depress Diesel Exports
Refinery outages continued to weigh on diesel supplies. Amid near-record refinery strikes in May, with at least 14 recorded instances, Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil exports fell to a seasonal minimum of 740,000 barrels per day, a 26% decline year-on-year.
Outlook for Refined Products and Crude
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have continued at a steady pace, with at least five attacks recorded so far in June. The frequency of reported outages has also increased. Six refineries that were attacked in May went into full outage, according to Reuters and other sources, affecting a total of 1.5 million barrels per day of crude distillation unit capacity, as reported by Argus. This represents nearly 21% of Russia’s total refining CDU capacity.
A multi-year sustained strike campaign against Russian refineries may incrementally increase infrastructure vulnerability, even if the severity of individual attacks remains unchanged. As a result, exports of Russian refined products are likely to remain subdued. For crude oil exports, this situation points to continued supply availability from Russia’s west-facing ports in the near term, particularly from the Russian Baltic region. With Arctic and Far East volumes also holding firm, more barrels are likely to be pushed into export channels. While it remains uncertain whether the United States will extend the sanctions waiver for Russian oil after June 17, Russia’s exports of predominantly medium-sour crude will likely remain robust, underpinned by the factors outlined above.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2035
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
- MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export
- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
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7. PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
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8. IMPORTS
The Largest Import Supplying Countries
- IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
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9. EXPORTS
The Largest Destinations for Exports
- EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
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11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition
PRO-
11.1
United States
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.2
China
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.3
Japan
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.4
Germany
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.5
United Kingdom
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.6
France
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.7
Brazil
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.8
Italy
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.9
Russian Federation
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.10
India
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.11
Canada
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.12
Australia
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.13
Republic of Korea
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.14
Spain
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.15
Mexico
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.16
Indonesia
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.17
Netherlands
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.18
Turkey
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.19
Saudi Arabia
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.20
Switzerland
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.21
Sweden
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.22
Nigeria
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.23
Poland
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.24
Belgium
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.25
Argentina
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.26
Norway
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.27
Austria
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.28
Thailand
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.29
United Arab Emirates
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.30
Colombia
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.31
Denmark
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.32
South Africa
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.33
Malaysia
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.34
Israel
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.35
Singapore
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.36
Egypt
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.37
Philippines
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.38
Finland
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.39
Chile
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.40
Ireland
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.41
Pakistan
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.42
Greece
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.43
Portugal
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.44
Kazakhstan
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.45
Algeria
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.46
Czech Republic
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.47
Qatar
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.48
Peru
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.49
Romania
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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11.50
Vietnam
- Market Size
- Production
- Imports
- Exports
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2025
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Per Capita Consumption, by Country, 2022–2025
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Import Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Export Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Consumption, by Country, 2025
- Market Volume Forecast to 2035
- Market Value Forecast to 2035
- Market Size and Growth, By Product
- Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
- Exports and Growth, By Product
- Export Prices and Growth, By Product
- Production Volume and Growth
- Exports and Growth
- Export Prices and Growth
- Market Size and Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports and Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Production, by Country, 2025
- Production, In Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Import Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
- Export Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
