Rising port stocks and conflicting data mask shifting supply routes, leaving traders uncertain whether import flows will normalise in June.
Launceston, Australia, June 11 (Reuters) – Iron ore is one of the main commodities that has remained unaffected by the storm sparked by the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, but that relative calm hides changes in the dynamics for this key raw material.
China imports about three-quarters of the world’s seaborne iron ore, using it for further steelmaking, which accounts for more than half of global production.
The overwhelming majority of iron ore comes from two countries – Australia and Brazil – with small volumes from other producers, notably South Africa and Guinea.
This trade line bypasses the Hormuz Strait, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, which has effectively been closed to shipping since the start of air actions by the United States and Israel against Iran.
Prices of iron ore have remained relatively stable since the start of the conflict, in contrast to greater volatility in prices for oil, petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and other metals.
Iron ore contracts on the Singapore Exchange have fluctuated in a range of about $105 per tonne so far this year.
In May, prices rose, easing from peak levels amid concerns by Chinese buyers about possible fuel shortages on ships due to the closure of the Hormuz Strait.
After fears about fuel supply eased, prices stabilized, closing May at around $101.65 per tonne on June 10.
A steady price was accompanied by a modest rise in imports to China: Customs statistics for the first five months of the year showed 516.26 million tonnes, up 6.3% from the same period last year.
Discrepancies in May data
Official data show that imports in May stood at 97.71 million tonnes, down 6% from April and a three-month low.
Their difference from DBX Commodities analysts’ estimates (105.56 million tonnes) and Kpler’s (106.4 million tonnes) indicates discrepancies among data sources.
Although data from tracking services does not always align with customs statistics, the roughly 8 million tonnes monthly gap is unusual and hints at a possible rebound in June, when some shipments could be carried over to the next month.
Nevertheless, China’s iron ore imports are holding up better than steel production: in the first four months of the year steel output fell 4.1% year-on-year to 331.12 million tonnes.
Rising ore inventories at Chinese ports, which reached historically high levels – 166.91 million tonnes for the week ended March 13 – and then declined to 159.09 million tonnes per week by June 5, but remained about 21% higher than the same period in 2025, also affect import dynamics.
Another factor is the decline in quantity and quality of domestic ore, pushing China to import iron ore from other sources to sustain steel production. According to MySteel, domestic ore output from January to April fell 1% year on year to 326.8 million tonnes.
Overall the iron ore market shows some resilience in demand despite geopolitical tension, but May data raise questions about data accuracy. Analysts expect further developments in June, particularly regarding China’s import pace and further trends in steel production.
Looking ahead, markets hope for more transparent and aligned data on imports and production, which will help better understand real trends and stabilize global steel prices.