The United States imports 100% of its natural graphite — a material that makes up roughly 68% of a battery’s weight and runs through defense systems, aerospace, and industrial applications. Nearly half of that supply comes from China. For decades, that dependency was treated as a cost-of-doing-business problem. Washington is now treating it as a national security issue.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Commerce finalized aggregate antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) of at least 160% on certain Chinese graphite imports, separate from existing tariffs. If the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) affirms the ruling in March, the duties will remain in place for at least five years.
160% Duties Neutralize China’s Pricing Edge
Chinese graphite has held structural pricing advantages for decades. A 160% duty effectively wipes that out. Combined with tightening Chinese export controls and rising national security scrutiny, Adiani said procurement priorities are already shifting. “We are seeing increased inbound interest from U.S. industrial, defense, and energy storage customers who are actively reassessing supply chain risk,” she said.
The timing matters. Adiani noted that energy storage systems are expanding 37% year over year, and demand for graphite is growing alongside AI infrastructure and grid buildout.
The U.S. currently imports 100% of its natural graphite. Roughly 42% comes directly from China, as per S&P Global. The U.S. used about 79,000 tonnes of natural graphite last year.
Titan Eyes 50% Of US Demand By 2028
Titan’s Kilbourne project in New York is central to its strategy. Discovered in 2022, it began production in 2026 and is targeting 40,000 tonnes annually by 2028 — potentially meeting close to half of current U.S. demand.
Adiani credited its proximity to an existing, fully permitted mine for the faster-than-usual ramp-up. “We’ve moved from just being a project into real output and customer qualification. That materially de-risks our story compared to new entrants,” she said.
Supporting the build-out, Titan has secured up to $120 million in long-term capital through EXIM and U.S. government financing partners.
Tariffs Are Not Enough On Their Own
However, Adiani was careful not to oversell the duty ruling. “Tariffs alone are not a silver bullet,” she said. Domestic producers need a structurally supported market that includes financing, policy continuity, and strategic stockpiling, not just import penalties.
She pointed to two recent Washington moves as signals of that broader commitment: a Section 232 Executive Order directing an investigation into critical mineral supply chain vulnerabilities, and Project Vault — a $12 billion public-private partnership aimed at securing critical mineral reserves and reducing dependence on China.
The 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese graphite also remains in place alongside the new AD/CVD duties, layering the protection further.
A Valuation Reset For Strategic Assets?
New entrants will likely take a hard look if the ITC affirms the ruling next month.
But Adiani is skeptical that competition will materialize quickly. “Building a permitted, integrated operation from scratch can often take years,” she said. This reality gives established players a window that others can’t easily close.
“When a market shifts from 100% import dependence to domestic production backed by national policy, it often resets how investors value strategic assets.”
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