The Southern Hemisphere is driving the global lemon supply with import fruit coming mainly from Argentina, South Africa and–increasingly–Chile. “Both Argentina and South Africa faced weather-related challenges early in the season, which affected harvest operations and supply consistency,” said Alejandro Moralejo, CEO of Salix Fruits. “However, conditions have now stabilized and volumes are flowing more regularly. Chile is just entering its export season and is gradually increasing shipments to key international markets.”
Indeed, heavy rains in Argentina affected access to orchards and harvesting while flooding in South Africa caused disruptions in harvesting and logistics. Meanwhile Chile has not reported any weather-related issues so far and is beginning its season under relatively favorable conditions.
However, as weather conditions in affected regions improved, operations gradually returned to normal and are creating a more consistent supply outlook. “The Southern Hemisphere lemon season is expected to continue through September, with peak export volumes typically occurring during the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” says Moralejo.
© Salix FruitsMoralejo says that the Southern Hemisphere lemon season is expected to continue through September, with peak export volumes typically occurring during the Northern Hemisphere summer months.
Demand pressure on imports
As for demand, it is strong across all major importing regions. “Reduced Northern Hemisphere production has created supply gaps that imported fruit is helping to fill. Europe, Russia and the United States are all showing healthy demand levels, supporting strong market conditions for exporters,” says Moralejo.
In all, lemon consumption is expected to remain solid during the Northern Hemisphere summer, particularly in Europe. “As long as supply remains balanced, demand is expected to continue supporting favorable market conditions throughout the season,” he adds.
All of this is leaving pricing well above historical averages with Europe and Russia beginning their seasons with significantly stronger prices than in previous years due to reduced Northern
Hemisphere production and tighter local availability. “In the United States, strong demand combined with limited California supply has also created favorable pricing conditions, particularly on the East Coast. Compared to a year ago, market returns are generally stronger across most major destinations,” says Moralejo.
© Salix Fruits
The market conditions for lemons are expected to remain positive in the short term, particularly throughout June.
Factors influencing pricing
That said, logistical challenges continue to be difficult—with key factors such as higher ocean freight, ongoing disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, shortages of refrigerated containers in some Southern Hemisphere ports, and potential weather-related disruptions in producing regions all impacting the season’s outlook. “While these issues remain manageable, they could become more significant if export volumes continue to increase,” he says.
Looking ahead, the market conditions are expected to remain positive in the short term, particularly throughout June. Demand is expected to remain healthy across Europe, Russia and the United States, while supply from the Southern Hemisphere remains relatively controlled. “The main variables to watch will be South African export volumes, freight costs, container availability and demand trends as Europe enters its peak summer consumption period,” says Moralejo.
Also, although it’s still early, growers and shippers are keeping an eye on the anticipated upcoming El Niño and its impact on lemon production. “The actual impact will depend on the intensity and geographic distribution of weather events associated with El Niño,” adds Moralejo.
For more information:
Salix Fruits
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www.salixfruits.com