US air cargo continues to play a pivotal role in global trade flows despite a moderation in import activity following recent tariff adjustments, according to the International Air Transport Association. Total cargo revenue ton-miles reached 82.6 million in 2025, a 1.48% decline from the previous year. Early 2026 data shows that air imports dropped approximately 23% year over year in January and February, but still remained about one-third higher than 2024 levels. By comparison, imports transported through other modes were 6% below 2024 benchmarks.
While evolving trade policies have reshaped shipment timing and sourcing strategies, air cargo has retained a structural advantage driven by speed, reliability, and its role in transporting high-value goods. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), this positions air freight as a strategic asset for managing uncertainty rather than a discretionary logistics option.
In 1Q25, US importers accelerated shipments to preempt anticipated tariff increases, a trend widely described as “frontloading.” During this period, the value of goods transported by air surged between 70% and 95% year over year, significantly outperforming other transport modes. More than 80% of incremental import value was moved via air.
Following the implementation of tariffs in 2Q25, import growth slowed across all transportation modes. However, air cargo demonstrated greater resilience. Although volumes declined by around 23% year over year in early 2026, they remained significantly above pre-surge levels. This indicates that while tariff policies altered shipment timing, they also reinforced long-term reliance on air freight for time-sensitive and high-margin goods.
In contrast, non-air imports continued to underperform, falling approximately 6% below 2024 levels. Analysts interpret this gap as evidence of a lasting structural shift. Companies are increasingly weighing transportation costs against operational risks, particularly in an environment shaped by policy volatility. In this context, air cargo’s higher cost is often offset by benefits such as reduced inventory exposure, faster replenishment cycles, and improved supply chain resilience.
According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), performance across US air cargo markets remains uneven. While total cargo activity declined slightly in 2025, regional trends varied: Atlantic and Latin American routes recorded growth of 5.73% and 7.69%, respectively, while Pacific routes contracted by 10.91%.
In January 2026, cargo volumes reached 6.14 million revenue ton-miles, reflecting a 6.72% decline compared with the same period in 2025. Domestic cargo fell 6.01%, while international markets showed mixed results, with modest growth in Atlantic routes (+2.67%) offset by declines in Latin America (-11.16%) and the Pacific (-0.38%).
Structural Drivers Sustain Elevated Demand
Beyond tariff dynamics, several structural factors continue to support air cargo demand. Cross-border e-commerce remains a key driver, alongside extended retail clearance cycles and the growing adoption of just-in-time inventory strategies. Retailers are increasingly shifting toward smaller, more frequent shipments to reduce storage costs and remain agile in response to fluctuating consumer demand.
Manufacturing trends are also reinforcing air freight usage. Growth in sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics has increased the need to transport high-value, time-sensitive components. Additionally, the expansion of geographically diversified supply chains across Asia, Mexico, and other emerging markets is boosting demand for faster interregional logistics solutions.
Volatility in ocean freight and recurring seasonal disruptions—such as those associated with Lunar New Year—further strengthen the case for air transport when reliability and transit speed are critical.
Industry leaders note that 2025 marked a turning point in supply chain strategy. Greg Schwendinger, President, American Airlines Cargo, highlighted how shifting tariff policies triggered significant frontloading activity and reshaped global trade patterns. Dan Morgan-Evans, Group Cargo Director, Air Charter Service, added that rapid policy changes introduced new volatility in pricing and demand, challenging traditional forecasting models and reinforcing the need for more flexible logistics planning.